The Redskin Report

Jump to Comments

A month ago, I wrote a column about the Redskins’ turnover issues, and why I expected a turn around soon. Needless to say, that turn around has yet to come. This is a team that ranks ahead of only New Orleans with a negative eleven turnover ratio. The only other team with a negative turnover ratio and a .500 or better record in the NFC is Chicago (-2). To be at -11, and still be 5-5 is in itself a remarkable achievement.

Unfortunately playoff spots aren’t awarded based on remarkable achievements. If the current trend continues, the Redskins will be enjoying January on the golf courses instead of the football field. And despite the multiple off-season championships the Redskins have won of late, I think most fans are ready for some playoff football. Are these poor suffering Redskins fans stuck to a destiny of a playoff free football team or is there still room to hope things will turn around?

The simple fact of the matter is this, in terms of turning the ball over; the Redskins haven’t been that bad. Washington only has thrown six interceptions on the season. That leaves them tied with Atlanta for the fewest INTs in the NFC. In terms of fumbles, the Redskins aren’t doing as well. They’ve fumbled the ball 21 times this year, losing 15. The 21 fumbles ranks 13th in the 16 team NFC. The 15 lost fumbles ranks last in the NFC. That’s obviously not good.

But what I’ve been saying is that it’s been tremendous bad luck that the Skins lose as many fumbles as they do. To prove my point I’m going to focus on lost fumble percentage. That’s taking total fumbles and dividing it by fumbles lost. I’ll show the bottom three and the top three in the NFC:

Lost Fumble Percentage

Team	TF	L	LF %
Green Bay	18	5	0.278
Philadelphia	18	5	0.278
Dallas	22	8	0.364
Detroit	11	7	0.636
Washington	21	15	0.714
New Orleans	17	14	0.824

As you can see, Dallas has had more fumbles than the Skins thus far this year, but they’ve lost seven less. There is no special fumble recovery skill. The Cowboys don’t have some magic trick that use that make the ball miraculously fall right to their own players. It is pure luck. Would you like proof? Here are the same teams, only using 2004 stats instead of 2005:

Team	TF	L	LF %	Change
Green Bay	22	10	0.455	-0.177
Philadelphia	17	11	0.647	-0.369
Dallas	26	14	0.538	-0.175
Detroit	12	7	0.583	0.053
Washington	20	10	0.500	0.214
New Orleans	23	10	0.435	0.389

To show what I mean, focus in on New Orleans. In 2005, they are the worst team in the NFC at recovering their own fumbles. In 2004, they were on the best teams. The Saints didn’t suddenly lose the ability to recover fumbles, its just luck of the draw. Philadelphia is another extreme example. In 2004, they were on the worst teams at recovering their own fumbles, this year they are the 2nd best team in the league.

If the Redskins were at the NFC average level of lost fumble percentage, they’d have turned over 4 less fumbles on the year. That is a significant difference.

I won’t go as in depth on the defensive side of the ball, but the same theory applies. Once a fumble hits the ground, which team gets the recovery is based on luck. Again the Redskins are well behind the average:

Team	FF	Rec	Rec %
Washington	18	3	0.167
NFC TOTAL	263	133	0.506

In terms of forced fumbles, there are only 3 teams in the NFC better at it than the Redskins. Yes, only three teams. In terms of recoveries, there isn’t a team any where near the level of the Redskins. The next worse is Seattle and they sit at 0.313. If you move the Redskins to the league average level of recoveries, the Redskins gain six fumble recoveries.

You probably remember the term ‘regression to the mean’ from some old math class you took back in the day. Heck you probably hated trying to figure the damn thing out. But as a Redskin fan, it should be your new best friend. Regression to the mean is that giving a large enough sample, the results will move towards the average (think flipping a coin 10 times versus flipping a coin 1000 times). If the Redskins fumble lost and recovery percentages were at the league averages the team’s turnover ratio would be negative one. Negative one isn’t something to brag about, but compared to -11, I’ll damn well take it. It’s doubtful the Redskins will get to back to the NFC average by the end of the year, but a positive ratio for the remaining games would be a pleasant change of pace for all fans.

Yes, I realize that I spent over an hour working on that and probably 5 people will be online tomorrow. So expect some links to this next week. Also, I’m going to start adding the daily Redskins links to the bottom of each daily article to reduce clutter on the main page.

AP- Redskins better at Giving than Receiving - Nothing like writing something up than finding something on the same topic online. Lets call this the appetizer, as mine is much more indepth.

WP- A Comeback for Brown - Speaking of turnovers, the Redskins have resigned Antonio Brown. He’ll return kicks and punts, and battle with Jimmy Farris for the 3rd wideout role. Lets hope he’s figured out how to catch during this time off.

WP- Tomlinson Making Home in the Endzone - Its hard to hate a guy as good as Tomlinson, especially when he plays in the AFC and can’t hurt the Skins very often. But containing him is the key to the game. If he gets off, the Redskins are toast.

WP - Redskins Notebook - Injuries Concern Gibbs - They concern me too coach. Also an update on Sellers, some Sean Taylor content and Friedman getting cut.

TimesDispatch - Cooley, Jacobs Next in Line - I think Cooley’s already had his coming out party, but a 3rd target is needed.

Fox Sports - Gates could be Game Time Decision - Listed as questionable on the 1st injury report. My gut feeling is that he won’t go, they’ve called up a TE from the practice squad and I think they’ll rest him.

Dallas Morning News - Ex-Cowboy counts his blessings - Not really Redskin related, but a good article about Shawn Springs’ dad.