The Redskin Report

With the NFL season rolling along, there is finally enough statistical data to do an in-depth preview. Here is what to look for in the game this Sunday.

When the Redskins Have the Ball: The Giants defense has been beyond bad so far this year. Teams have been passing on them at will. This off-season, the Giants fell into the old free agent trap of signing older players to try to fill weaknesses with predictable results. Their big free agent signings, Sam Madison and Lavar Arrington, have not performed up to expectations and their usually strong pass rush has disappointed thus far in 2006. It hasn’t just been one part of the secondary that’s struggled: they rank 21st against #1 WRs, 25th against 2nd WRs, 25th against other receivers and 28th against tight ends. To put into perspective how bad that is, the Redskins rank better than the Giants in all those aspects and I think we can all acknowledge that the Redskins secondary has been wretched this season (this is adjusted for opponents too, so the old ‘tough schedule’ excuse doesn’t work here). If the Redskins can give Brunell some time, look for some big plays. Santana Moss has had some huge games against the Giants in recent years.

The Giants are much stronger against the run. The Redskins running game against the Giants rush defense will be battle of strength vs strength. The Redskins are one of the best teams in the league running up the middle and the Giants are among the best at stopping runs up the middle. If there is a weakness to the Giants run defense it is on outside runs to the left. The Giants only rank 22nd on plays in that direction. The ability of Randy Thomas to pull on rushing plays will be an important part of the game plan.

When the Giants have the Ball: The Redskins defense has not played up to par this year. Ever since Gregg Williams joined the Redskins the defense has been a strength of the team but this season they’ve given up deep passes at an alarming rate. One issue that has escaped the mainstream media is that the Redskins had a similar issue early last year. The problem is both cases is Williams calling too many blitzes. Last year, the Redskins didn’t have enough players who could get to the quarterback on blitzes, leaving the secondary in single coverage for way too long. This year, the Redskins can get to the QB but they don’t have enough players in the secondary who can handle man to man coverage. The main culprit has been Adam Archuleta, who seems to get burned for at least two deep passes per game. The Redskins made some adjustments last week, blitzing Archuleta or replacing him with Curry Burns at times, but it still didn’t work. Until Springs gets back, Williams is going to have to dial down the blitz calls and implement a more conservative game plan.

The Giants offense has been good. According to Football Outsiders DVOA (defense adjusted value over average), they rank 5th in the league behind only Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Dallas and the Redskins (pretty tough division, eh?). They feature a balanced attack. Tiki Barber is still going strong, and they have a solid passing game. I’ve blasted Eli Manning’s inaccurate passing many times in the past, so you have to give him credit for completing over 66% of his passes so far this year. However there are still some some signs that he’s the same ole Eli. The biggest signal is the five interceptions he’s thrown in only three games this year. You also have to discount some of his numbers due to the fact that the Giants have been way behind in two of their three games thus facing vanilla defenses for the most part. So when the broadcasters note Eli’s huge passer rating in the 4th quarter this week, keep in mind that most of it came with his team trailing by 14+ points.

Special Teams: The Redskins have a special team edge this week, but that can be attributed almost fully to the strong kick returns they’ve gotten from Rock Cartwright. In week one Cartwright looked awful, but his vision has improved substantially and he’s broken a bunch of good returns in recent weeks. Even if you take out the 100-yard touchdown return against the Cowboys, Cartwright is still averaging more than a yard per return better than Giants’ return “specialist” Chad Morton. Both team’s punters have been solid this year, although Derrick Frost looked mighty shaky last week. As for the kickers, John Hall has looked good going 8-9 on field goals; Jay Feely, on the other hand, hasn’t had many chances this year with only three attempts (making two).

In their last games, the Redskins had their best performance to date while the Giants were awful. Big questions about the Giants ability to compete this year have been raised and this is a very important game for them. The Giants sit at 1-2 right now, and after this game they go on the road to Atlanta and Dallas in back to back weeks. They could easily be looking at a 1-5 record after six games. We’ll know a lot about the Giants chances after this week. If their defense hasn’t improved over the bye week they are in for a very long season.

All signs point to the Redskins continuing their offensive resurgence this week. If the Redskins play a conservative defense and force Manning to nickel and dime his way down the field, he’ll make mistakes. The Redskins look to be hitting their groove and should be able to steal this divisional match-up.

Washington 31 NY Giants 24