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This was originally published on January 30, 2006

Back to Part One: The Case for Art Monk - Introduction

As stated yesterday, we are taking a look at Art Monk and if he really was a hall of fame caliber player. Today we are looking at the careers of the modern era wide receivers in comparison to Monk. While the career numbers are fairly well known, we’ll take it a step further. If you are at all familiar with sabermatics in baseball, you’ll know adjusted numbers are common place. Adjusted numbers are used to even the playing field so you can accurately compare players from different eras or even different ball parks. We’ll borrow from that technique and adjust all these receivers’ numbers so we can accurately compare the receivers from the 60s to the receivers from the 90s. This will paint an accurate picture of where Monk stands to the other players.

Career Numbers

Unadjusted numbers make Monk a no-brainer. He’s top in catches and 3rd in yards and 9th in touchdowns. Yes, his yards per catch would rank him tied for last with Fears. But by that estimation, guys like John Riggins and Jerome Bettis aren’t hall of famers either. Every player has different skill sets and it’s reflected by the players already enshrined in the hall of fame. Burners like Warfield and Lofton are represented, while possession guys like Taylor and Barry are also in the hall.

To further showcase Monk’s career numbers, look at these numbers per season. Monk ranks 1st in catches/year, and 3rd in yards. Although he drops in touchdowns to 14th, he does jump ahead of Lofton, the one player who played in the same era. For the season averages, any season where the player plays less than 4 games is omitted. Also note that these numbers are not adjusted for injuries or the two years where strikes reduced the amount of games played.

If you just stick to players who played in the majority of their careers in the 70s and 80s, Monk impresses. The only player amongst this group of eight who you could argue surpasses Monk is Largent. Monk edges Lofton, and dominates Stallworth, Swann and Joiner.

But those facts are fairly well known amongst fans and the media alike. It’s hard to compare different eras. Many Monk supporters have argued that the passing explosion, that began just as his career ended, has hurt Monk’s chances. So the question becomes how to eliminate the differences in eras. When Monk caught over 100 balls in 1984, it was an extraordinary accomplishment that hadn’t been done in 20 years. By the mid 90s it was common place, accomplished by middling receivers like Terrence Mathis and Brett Perriman. Be warned the next few paragraphs are math related, although it won’t be that painful.

To adjust the numbers, we need to establish average numbers for each year. What I’ve done is taken the top 20 players each year in receptions and yardage (please note there is a lot of overlap so the number of players used to calculate the averages vary from year to year). From those players, I’ve got an average number of receptions, yardage and touchdowns for each year.

One issue that arises is the two strike years (1982 and 1987). To keep the numbers consistent, I’ve extrapolated those years out to 16 games. In 1982, since all players played the nine game schedule, it was a straightforward calculation on the season average. But 1987 was a different animal, as some players cross the picket line and played more games than others, so the calculation was done on a player by player basis to get the 16 game average.

One other note is that injuries were not adjusted for as they are part of the game. This included the strike years. In 1987, Monk was injured and missed the final three games of the season, so his numbers were only adjusted up to 13 games that year.

That’s the end of the basic math. As for the numbers, I’ve gone back to 1960 for the adjustments. So any player who played before 1960 gets a free pass here. Some interesting numbers are found in the adjustment numbers. Despite the image of the older years being run heavy, our average figure for 1963 is over 1000 receiving yards, a level not reached again until 1981. Those numbers decreased until the NFL hit a low in 1974 with 636 yards being the figure that year. You’ll also see that receivers actually scored more touchdowns in the early 60s than they do even today. Here are the year by year totals in graphical form:

Now while those numbers are interesting, they are pretty useless on their own. It’s still comparing apples to oranges, as a reception in 1975 is a lot tougher to get than a reception in 2005. What we have to do is get adjust all the years so they are comparable. We need to make the 1975 catch have the same value as the 2005 catch. To do this, we need to find a base year and move all other years up to that level. This is a lot like how CPI (inflation) numbers are calculated.

Since this season just finished, we’ll use 2005 as the base year. What we’ll do then is figure out a factor to get every season’s average numbers to equal the average numbers in 2005 (i.e. if the average player in 1960 scored 1 touchdown, and the average player in 2005 scored two touchdowns, we’d multiply every touchdown in 1960 by 2 to get its 2005 value). I know this is pretty basic stuff, but a lot of people aren’t big on math, so I’m trying to keep things clear.

After making all the adjustments, here all the hall of fame receivers’ career numbers in terms of their 2005 value:

As you can see, all of the numbers are a lot better as expected. Catches and yards are way up for all the players. As explained earlier the touchdown numbers have much smaller changes. You’ll also note, I’ve included Michael Irvin in the group as he is up for election this year.

More importantly for our purposes, Monk is still one of the best in this group. He still leads the group in receptions, although his lead is decreased. In terms of yardage, Monk’s career total ranks him 4th in this group. Not bad for a possession receiver who can’t stretch the field. Touchdowns continue to be the weak link in Monk’s numbers, but he does rank ahead of Michael Irvin and Lynn Swann.

Above are the adjusted average season numbers for the Hall of Fame Receivers and candidates who’ve played their entire career since 1960. Is Art Monk a Hall of Fame receiver? There is no doubt from these numbers. He clearly surpasses Joiner, Stalllworth and Swann. The numbers show three tiers of receivers:

The Best of the Best
Lance Alworth
Charley Taylor
Steve Largent

Solid Hall of Famers
Art Monk
Fred Biletnikoff
Michael Irvin
James Lofton
Paul Warfield

The Tough Calls
Charlie Joiner
John Stallworth
Lynn Swann

So what exactly is the problem? Why isn’t Monk getting the votes? Tomorrow we’ll look at each player’s peak years. Was Monk just a consistent player and never stood out until you look at the numbers? Is there no “wow” season in Monk’s arsenal? Check back tomorrow for more.

Continue to Part Three: The Case for Art Monk - Career Peak

Adjusted figures: I began with the over 6200 receiver seasons played in the NFL since 1960. To determine the baseline for each season, I took the the top 20 in receptions and yardage every year, averaged out the numbers. The number of receivers used per year varies as there is a lot of overlap in the top 21 in receptions and yardage. The strike years were adjusted to 16 games. 1982 was simply taken each players average game from the nine played and multiplied by 16. 1987 was treating differently as there were replacement games and some players cross the line to play. All 22 of the players used were adjusted to 16 games played by taking average game stats and multiplied by 16 (i.e. JT Smith played 15 games, his season stats were divided by 15 then multiplied by 16, most players played 12 games that year). Monk was injured in 1987 and only played 9 game,s missing 3 games to injury, so his stats were only adjusted up to 13 games.