The Redskin Report

Since in less than a week, we’re going to hit the Free Agency period, it’s time to do a little (light) analysis of what to expect over the next 6 weeks by the Washington Redskins Front Office.

 First off, with the current restructurings in place or expected to be in place and announced in the next few days, the Redskins enter the day before Free Agency somewhere North of 6 million dollars over the cap; it’s expected that the Redskins will make minimum tender offers to many of the current RFAs prior to the Free Agency period; that pretty much limits those players to coming back to the the Redskins for almost all of those players.  However, that will actually make our cap situation worse.

The “good” news, however, is that on March 1st, Mark Brunnell’s remaining contract voids (I call this good news only because of the Cap; with the possible loss of Todd Collins, Brunnell is the only veteran backup quarterback option on the team).  That frees up about $3-3.5 million in Cap.  Note, however, that voiding Brunnell’s contract does not mean he won’t be back with the team next year; the Redskins could very well void his contract, making him a free agent, and offer a veteran’s minimum to come back as a backup going forward, which saves the Redskins a decent amount of money.  However, the Redskins cannot restructure his contract and make those savings, so one way or another, you’ll hear headlines saying that’s he’s gone on March 1st.  Just don’t believe that’s the final word on his status, not yet at least.

With the possible release of Brandon Lloyd, we would lose 3 million of the Brunnell savings, but have Lloyd off the books going forward; I could deal with that normally, but that’s not what the Redskins will do.  Look for Lloyd to be released on June 1st, freeing up another 1.5 million at that point; however, he’ll be costly dead cap in 2009, which should hamper what we do.  His money will almost certaily be used as part of the Rookie Pool for the UDFA and late draft picks.

There are, however, further restructurings that could occur that would influence the cap.  If Shawn Springs agrees to restructure, he’ll be back with the team for at least the next three years (any shorter would likely kill the Redskins in future years, and probably wouldn’t give enough relief anyway).  If he doesn’t restructure, the Redskins may hold onto him as long as possible before releasing him for 2.5 million in cap relief.  The Redskins do want (and need) him back, though, so it’s totally in Shawn’s court.  Late during the season, I felt certain that Springs would decide to play out the rest of his career as Burgundy and Gold after the season’s events.  I’m not as sure of that now, but it’s still much more likely that we’ll be seeing Springs on the team going forward than it would have seemed prior to the start of last season.

I’ve seen some speculation that the Redskins might cut Phillip Daniels (for 3 Mil) or Pete Kendall (2.5 Mil) of relief.  While Daniels is a possible cut, I think the Redskins will probably not pull that trigger, at least not until after the draft, when they have a chance to see who they got.  Kendall is even less likely, as the Redskins don’t have a viable replacement in the works, or even a decent prospect who would come cheaper at this time; we also couldn’t afford to replace him with a large enough step up  on the savings to make it worthwhile.  However, he’s a “Rent-a-Redskin”…. it’s unlikely he’ll be around for the 2009 season, but I don’t see him being cut this year, at least not prior to the end of training camp.

 That leaves the Redskins with minimal operating room; there are still some restructurings that will be made, even after Free Agency starts, that will help, but by my estimates, the Redskins come in between .5 million and 6 million under Cap on March 2nd.  Later in the Free Agency period, the Redskins would have additional cap to work with, perhaps as much as an additional 5-7 from restructurings, and 7 from releasing a few other players.  And that’s MORE than enough.  At the top side, we’re talking about as much as 20 million dollars of cap; on the low side, as low as about 6.  That’s enough to do the entire Draft and a bit of room for UDFAs for camp fodder.  It’s NOT enough, on the low end at least, for a lot of splashy signings, so I actually don’t expect the Lance Briggs or Randy Mosses to get much more than a passing look, regardless of what the team says publicly; they’re just to pricy in this year, where we are handicapped somewhat because of the Adam Archuleta and Brandon Lloyd failures.  Donte Stallworth may be a slight possibility, though, but it would be a LONG contract…  which will lead me to the real wildcard in all of the cap discussions.

To preface this paragraph, ask yourself this:  If you were Vinny Cerato and Daniel Snyder, how much of a gambler would you be?  Two years ago, the Redskins were in Cap Hell, finally.  All the cap machinations had moved an ever-growing wave forward, year by year.  And with the end of the CBA, the Cap was going DOWN; the Redskins would have to reduce payroll by cutting players who were still important contributors, STAR players, and would be unable to resign any of their own FAs.  But the CBA was reopened, which in turn allowed plenty of new cap space.  But it also created something else; two important years for Capology.  The first is 2010;  if the league decides to reopen the CBA, as the NFLPA believes they are, there would be a year without a Cap.  That means load everything and anything into 2010 (huge guaranteed salarys, roster bonuses, etc.)  For rich teams, such as Washington, Dallas, the Giants, etc., that would be a godsend.  For small market teams, such as Green Bay or New Orleans, it would be disaster.  However, even if the 2010 year is capped, 2013 is NOT under the current CBA.  It’s possible to put huge guaranteed money escalator clauses in with 2013 being the year, as well.  Obviously, this could only work on players that you still expect to be on the team in 2013, but it’s there.  Players in that group, however, would tend to be the younger players, such as LaRon Landry, Golston, Montgomery, Heyer, etc.; for 2013, you don’t need to to think about that yet, although it’s something to look at with draft picks; that’s 6 seasons out.  2010, however, is in THESE contracts… the Redskins typically write contracts that truly end after 3-4 years.  It’s possible the Redskins will put guaranteed escalator clauses into some of the contracts for a premier (young) FA that would be coming in, or a premium restructuring to get cap money even lower.  We’d be wedded to that player for three seasons, though, and if 2010 IS capped…. we would be in more than just Cap Hell.  So how much do you gamble?  Randy Moss, guaranteed for 3 years, veteran minimum for years one and two, $20million in 2010, all guaranteed, with a 3 million signing bonus?  If Dan of the Deep Pockets wants to gamble, he has the money.  But this story about the CBA possibly being reopened might just be the single most important driver of how splashy the Redskins can be in the coming FA period.