Twas the day before the draft and well, I don’t think anyone has much of a feel of what is going to happen tomorrow. The team appears to have narrowed their choices down to a few players, but you get the feeling they would rather trade the 21st pick than make a selection. So lets take a gander at the options:
1. Package the 21 and Other Draft Picks to Acquire a Number One Receiver
We found out earlier this week that the Redskins are more than willing to deal a whole whack of picks to land a top receiver. The Redskins have already been declined by the Bengals for Chad Johnson and the Cardinals for Anquan Bolden. There has also been reports that the Redskins have talking to Detroit about (the good) Roy Williams.
Initial reaction was that the Redskins were crazy for offering up (potentially) two first round picks for veteran receivers, but on 2nd thought it may make more sense than originally assumed. A lot of ’core’ Redskins are getting up there in years – Shawn Springs, Marcus Washington, Santana Moss, Chris Samuel and Clinton Portis. These guys likely won’t be around in 3 or 4 years, so perhaps risking some future potential for the present is the right move. The main question mark in the ‘go for it’ equation is Jason Campbell, can he lead a team to the Super Bowl at this stage of his development?
It looks like the Redskins advances have been spurned at this point, but as the draft gets closer these teams may be more likely to agree to a deal. If the Bengals don’t make a Johnson trade this weekend (and he holds out) they would be punting their chances at landing anyone who will contribute this year, which doesn’t seem like the wisest move when you have Carson Palmer at QB. I wouldn’t call a trade of this nature likely at this point, but don’t be surprised if something does happen this weekend.
2. Trade Down and Add Picks
If the Redskins can’t add that big name receiver, trading down is the preferred move for the front office. The two receivers the Redskins have shown the most interest in – Malcolm Kelly and Jordy Nelson – will likely be available until at least the beginning of the 2ndround (if the Redskins can’t move down and don’t pick Kelly, they will be praying that Nelson falls to them in the 2nd round).
The front office feels that this is a deep draft of players who grade out in the 2nd to 3rd round range, but they don’t see much 1st round talent, particularly at the 21st slot. The Redskins already hold 4 picks in the first three rounds, so moving down and grabbing an extra pick or two would allow the team to land some depth and fill a few holes.
When it comes to trading down, desire to deal so isn’t enough to get it done. The team will need help on the draft board. If Atlanta doesn’t take Matt Ryan at #3, they may want to move up to grab Brian Brohm. The Ravens also could be looking to move up for a QB if Ryan doesn’t fall to them at 9. The other trade option is a team hoping to jump over Dallas to take running back Felix Jones. While this is the most desirable move right now for the team, its out of their hands whether or not they can make it happen at this point.
3. Stay Put and Draft at 21
And now the most likely and most boring option for the Redskins – standing pat and making a pick. Most people have assumed that the pick will be either WR Malcolm Kelly or DE Phillip Merling but there are other options. The absurd hype over OG/OT Brandon Albert appears to have died down in recent days and he may make a surprising dip to the Redskins slot. Other receivers like Devin Thomas or James Hardy could be available when the Redskins pick.
There are also other positions to consider. Cornerback, with Carlos Rogers not likely to be ready to start the year, may be such a spot. The top two corner prospects, Mike Jenkins and Leodis McKelvin will likely be off the board, but other highly rated guys like Aqib Talib or Dominque Rogers-Cromartie may be available at twenty-one. Safety is another options, but that’s a long shot at this point as there isn’t really anyone who grades highly enough to be selected in the Redskins current draft slot.
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No matter what does down tomorrow, this will be one of the more interesting draft days in recent memory. The Redskins have had higher picks in the past few years, but its been a while since everything was so wide open.
Prediction
If Merling falls to the Redskins pick, he’s their guy. The Redskins will then try to deal away either this year’s 5th rounder or a future year pick to move up in the 2nd round to land Nelson. If Merling is snapped up, Kelly will be joining the Redskins and the rest of the draft will be as unpredictable as the first round.
Merling at 21 and Kelly as a high 2nd via a trade of our #2 this year and perhaps next years #2 seems to me to be the biggest possibility; however, at least the WaPost says Merling goes late 1st round, so what do I know?
One way or another, tomorrow night we’re going to be reading extensively about (at least) two Redskin picks; I cannot see them actually trading out at this point (oh, man, I hope not!). Right now, cost and depth is more what the Redskins need to work for, or two years from now (barring no Salary Cap….) the Redskins’ tank is going to be empty… we need young studs!