The Redskin Report

I wish I could have put this up before the day’s draft started, but it needs to go up one way or the other.  I’m assuming Lee will do an analysis of day 2, and we’ll probably both chime in at some point on the total draft.

So let’s get this out of the way…. Our number one priority (as fans) were real simple going into the draft: we need OL help, DL help, a DB or two, a starting caliber wideout, and a backup QB.  That’s >7< picks.  We could use an additional LB, but it’s not as imperative.  Looking forward to the ‘09 draft (and we need to do that to fully understand this draft) our needs are in one area a year off of talent; next year is going to be huge for DL prospects.  This year was a very good year for OL, but the odd run on them means that many teams are stocking up, BIG, in OL.  While we can bemoan the fact that at least on Day 1 we didn’t pick up a OL prospect, we need only be reminded of one date:  June 1, 2008.  That’s the second “Happy Time” in Free Agency.  A lot of these OL prospects are going to cause higher priced backups in OL positions to be released.  Some will be guys that are only depth, even on aging teams… but some are going to be vets on the downside of their careers who make too much money when you’ve got a young 1st or 2nd rounder pushing for the same spot.  Expect that unlike the first FA period, the Redskins actually will sign a few FAs in June (yes, at the time I’m actually writing this, the Redskins have drafted a G/T; doesn’t change a thing about what I’m writing… the run on OL means we may not WANT to draft many young OL this year; one and a couple of UDFA and FA players is where we’ll probably go with this).  DL help, then, is what we’ve all screamed at… we need to keep our QB upright (even if we didn’t draft any OL help, if we’re relatively active in the OL FA process in June, we may improve our depth significantly).  Our choices came down to three players:  Merling, Cambell, and Gohlstone.  Merling would obviously have been our choice at #34 if the Dolphins had gone WR at #32 and taken Thomas.  Even though at the time, I felt that losing Merling meant the trade was a bad deal (I still think it was only OK), we DID get one of the players we never dreamed would be available to us in Devin Thomas; the team says that if we had picked at #21, he was the pick; Merling was obviously the other guy in the equation. 

When we picked up TE Fred Davis at #48, my first instinct was incredulity; we have one of the best TEs in the game, a young stud signed on a long term contract that’s very affordable, who’s well liked by fans and loves the team in Chris Cooley.  Davis is a near carbon copy… why did we need that?  However, the WCO does a lot of two TE sets, and in the red zone, teams have started targeting Cooley for double coverage; with Davis, if he truly earns the “Cooley Clone” sobriquet, then we’ll have four guys back in coverage on just two TEs… we have matchup advantages on the RB and 2 WRs, which should be a big deal in the Redzone.  The more I’ve thought about it, the better this pick actually looks, though not at #48; we could have still gotten him at #51.  The player we COULDN’T still get at #51 was the DE we so desperately needed; the last truly good choice on the boards was Calais Cambell, and he got snatched at #50.  If we had taken him at #48, and gone Davis at #51, folks would have complained mightily for a half hour over Davis, but then would have realized the overmatch in the “Redskinszone” that we’ve just created.  The trade would be looking like a great deal for the Redskins, and we’d be singing Cerrato’s praises.

But Calais Cambell was picked by the Arizona Career Killers, er, Cardinals.  With us on the clock and “our player” just snatched from us, it looks like Cerrato and company panicked; they realized they should have reversed the pick order.  But in the draft, you can never take time to mourn your mistake while on the clock… you have to go.  So the Redskins probably panicked a little when they went with Kelly.

Now, Kelly is potentially a great pick; we may have gotten both of our future star WRs in this draft.  He does have a few red flags over his potentially being a typical WR Diva; those tend to be either very, very good (rare) or very, very overrated (common, especially when the Diva ends up feeling that he’s more important than the team).  But the ultimate reason we took him is not because we wanted a second WR; we took him because he was Best Player Available (BPA), in a position that we knew we had a need in prior to the draft; the fact that we took a player to fill that need is secondary.  ANY player can be a bust, even guarenteed no-brainer overall #1-#10 picks.  So Kelly is also insurance.  But he’s expensive insurance; we could have still gotten a decent DE at #51, just not one that Snyder was (Jerry) Jonesing for.

So, in all, we traded our #1 for the player we were going to pick, picked a position that no one expected but could truly be a great pickup, and then misused (I won’t say wasted; if Kelly turns out to be a very good WR for us, and Thomas turns into a bust, it DEFINITELY wasn’t wasted; if Kelly turns out well, it wasn’t wasted under any circumstances) our own pick.  We’ve been active in trading all day today, (Day 2) as well, and some of Day 2 is directly related to this, because of moving up into the fourth, etc.  But here’s my breakdown (not of the players, but of the things the Redskins did) in terms of raw grades:

• The 1st Round Trade down -  We got robbed, slightly, in that our #1 and #3 should have been enough; if we’d only given up #1 and #5, we’d have done ok; if we’d gotten an extra pick next year (say, even a #3) that would have worked.  However, that said, we STILL got the player we wanted, and moved up with the other picks, so…. it worked out well.  Doesn’t change our having been robbed, but it still worked for us.  Because we got lucky, the grade is much higher, it should have been a C-.  Grade: B+
• WR Devin Thomas - Jury will be out on him as a player, of course, but for now, as a PICK, in a position of need, the grade is easy; he was easily the best graded WR in the draft.  Grade: A+
• TE Fred Davis - As I stated, this was a bizarre pick at first glance, but in retrospect, it’s ALMOST brilliant.  The problem is that it was the wrong place; Davis would have been available three picks later, at #51, whereas our projected pick at #51 was not, having been snatched at #50.  I’ll give an A for the idea; it’s actually near genius (is this the second time I’ve called something Cerrato has done brilliant?  Oh my!).  Actual execution was awful, though… he should have been our pick three picks later.  If the Redskins had done that, this would be an A+, and maybe the best move they’ve made this year; because we lost Calais Cambell, I have to downgrade this grade significantly.  It’s not a knock on the player, it’s that our Front Office gambled, and LOST big.  Grade: D (But only because they picked him three picks too early).
• WR Malcolm Kelly - Realizing what I’ve said earlier, you have to look at why the Redskins panicked and went with Kelly.  As an organisation, they were obviously comfortable with the idea of drafting Kelly as high as #21 if necessary; to get him at #51 really is a steal.  But this was the player we did not need; we needed Calais Cambell by that point.  And our Front Office messed up because of the way the picks went from #48-#51.  For the player, I’d have said B; for the SECOND WR drafted by the Redskins, I have to say C.  For the fact that we gambled, lost and panicked on the pick, there can be only one grade.  Grade: F

Again, I’m NOT knocking the players; I grade Kelly as an A at #51; if we’d picked Merling at #21, and still gotten Kelly at #51, this grade would be easy, an A for the day.  But we DIDN’T.  We ended up starting something truly, outrageously, off the wall and BRILLIANT… but we gambled hard in how we did it, and lost the gamble.  Kenny Roger’s old song “The Gambler” must have been playing…. because we didn’t know when to fold ‘em (#48) and then got burned on the last card.  So the choice for the day is straightforward is convoluted: with an A and B+ players, we got playmakers.  For being outmanuevered and not getting one of the two other players we desperately needed, we stunk.

Grade:  C+

Hopefully the front office has learned not to gamble quite so much.  But you do have to like who they picked in the end.  It bodes well that we have ALL of our picks next year, IIRC.  Like it or not, we ARE rebuilding… we’re just rebuilding a team that’s constantly sniffing in playoff territory.  And we’ve spent Day 1 looking at our future.  Let’s hope that Day 2 is a day we can look back at and say “Hey, that pick suddenly makes a LOT of sense!”, too.