Expected Starters
Seattle Offense
QB: Matt Hasselbeck
RB: Shaun Alexander
FB: Mack Strong
WR: Darrell Jackson
WR: Bobby Engram
TE: Jerramy Stevens
OL: Walter Jones, Steve Hutchinson, Robbie Tobeck, Chris Gray, Sean Locklear

Washington Defense
DE: Demetric Evans
DT: Cornelius Griffin
DT: Joe Salave’a
DE: Phillip Daniels
SLB: Marcus Washington
MLB: Lemar Marshall
WLB: LaVar Arrington
LCB: Shawn Springs
RCB: Carlos Rogers
SS: Ryan Clark
FS: Sean Taylor

Passing Game:
Seattle:
Matt Hasselbeck 294-449, 65.5%, 3459 yards, 24 TD, 9 INT, 98.2 QB Rating
Bobby Engram 67-778, 11.6ypc, 3 TD
Joe Jurevicius 55-694, 12.6ypc, 10 TD

Hasselbeck is a very accurate passer. He’s matured over the years, and is now one of the better quarterbacks in the league. The 2005 season has been a breakout year for Hasselback, as his QB rating has reached the 90s for the 1st time. When you go through the Seattle schedule, you notice the lack of good teams. But more specifically they haven’t played a top ten pass defense since the 1st Washington game.

The receiving corps doesn’t feature any superstars, but has great depth. The Seahawks lack a true number 1 receiver but they have 3 reliable wideouts. Darrell Jackson, who missed a lot of the season with injury, is the nominal number one guy. He started out this season on fire, with two 100 yard games in the 1st three contests. Since returning from the injury, he’s only played in two games and has been ok. Bobby Engram, has long been one of the best 3rd receivers in the league. This year he was promoted to the starting line-up and has produced. Engram is a possession receiver and not a big threat in the red zone. Joe Jurevicius, came up big through all the injuries. Though his numbers have dropped since Jackson returned, he is still a big threat to score.

Jerramay Stevens is a big (6’7) tight end, who also has had a career year in 2005. He’s a decent threat, and is looked for quite a bit on 3rd downs. DJ Hackett is the big play threat, but will be used sparingly with all the receivers being healthy. They rarely throw to the running backs.

The offensive line does a good job pass blocking, and the Seahawks ranked amongst the league leaders in least sacks allowed. The entire line is good at pass blocking and besides Osi Umenyiora’s domination of Walter Jones in the Giants game, the line has played well.

Seahawks Passing Game by the Numbers:
Overall Ranking: 13th
Schedule Adjustment Ranking: n/a

Washington:
Phillip Daniels 8 sacks
Marcus Washington 7.5 sacks, 1 interception
Lemar Marshall 2 sacks, 4 interceptions
Ryan Clark 0.5 sacks, 3 interceptions

If the Redskins are to get pressure on Hasselbeck it may have to come from up the middle. Blitzing and getting to the QB can be tough in a west coast offense. Phillip Daniels has a tough match-up, going up against all-world tackle Walter Jones. I’d expect a similar approach as the Tampa Bay game, with the line trying to bat balls down. Demetric Evans is a better pass rusher than Renaldo Wynn so the Redskins may gain a bit in terms of pass rush from that exchange. The secondary is healthy and expected to be at full strength for the 1st time since Carlos Rogers’ injury. The Skins will have to avoid giving up the big plays and try to force a turnover or two.

Redskins Pass Defense by the Numbers:
Overall Ranking: 10th
Schedule Adjustment Ranking: 7th
Vs. #1 Receivers: Ranked 6th
Vs. #2 Receivers: Ranked 16th
Vs. Other Receivers: Ranked 13th
Vs. Tight Ends: Ranked 7th
Vs. Running Backs: Ranked 5th

Run Game
Seattle:
Shaun Alexander 370-1880, 5.1ypc, 27 TD
Maurice Morris 71-288, 4.1ypc, 1 TD
Matt Hasselbeck 36-124, 3.4ypc, 1 TD

What more can be said about Shaun Alexander, your 2005 NFL MVP. He’s had a career year, leading the league in rushing and setting a record for touchdowns. He can break a long run, or power his way through a crowd. The Redskins will need to continue their strong tackling and avoid the big play. As Jon Jansen said on the official website, whichever team rushes for more yards will probably win this contest. Oddly enough, despite all the accolades that Jones and Hutchinson get, the Seahawks are better at running to the right side. Maurice Morris is a capable back up and Mack Strong is a quality fullback.

Seattle Run Game by the Numbers:
Overall Ranking: 3rd
Schedule Adjustment Ranking: 4th
Runs around Left End: 4.21ypc (16th)
Runs behind Left Tackle: 3.76ypc (24th)
Runs up the Middle: 4.72ypc (2nd)
Runs behind Right Tackle: 5.22ypc (2nd)
Runs around Right End: 4.71ypc (7th)

Washington:
Lemar Marshall 98 tackles; 2 forced fumbles
Marcus Washington 93 tackles; 3 forced fumbles
Sean Taylor 70 tackles; 2 forced fumbles

The battle of the game will be up front on running plays. The Redskins have one of the best run stopping defensive lines, while the offensive line of the Seahawks is top notch. If you look at the numbers, in terms of the directions of runs, the strengths of both teams match up. The Skins are good at defending out runs to the right and up the middle and the Hawks are good at running in the same direction. It will be a battle.

Redskins Run Defense by the Numbers:
Overall Ranking: 13th
Schedule Adjustment Ranking: 5th
Runs around Left End: 4.39ypc (21st)
Runs behind Left Tackle: 3.94ypc (12th)
Runs up the Middle: 3.72ypc (7th)
Runs behind Right Tackle: 4.19ypc (19th)
Runs around Right End: 3.12ypc (6th)

Summary

As mentioned yesterday, the key to the game will probably be keeping the Seattle offense off the field. Unfortunately it’s doubtful that the Redskins will control the ball for all 60 minutes, so the defense will have to make plays. This will be a war. The Seattle offense is 2nd in the league and the Redskins defense is playing great. When looking at the units on paper, it’s hard to say who has the edge. Luckily the games are decided on the field, and it should be a treat to watch on Saturday.

Tomorrow: Redskins Offense vs. Seattle Defense

In the Post:
Brunell’s struggles; Seahawk shake up; The Froster; Taylor trial delay; Springs return; Dilfer routing for Hawks

“Sure the Redskins won, but only because the Seahawks kicker missed that field goal in the 4th quarter”

Get used to hearing that, because it will be said over and over again this week. And yes its true. Of course that means discounting the other 59 minutes of the game and assuming nothing else happened that may have changed the score.

Josh Brown was one for three on his field goal attempts in the game. For a kicker who kicked at 72% of the season, that’s a bad day. However, all of his kicks were from long distance. He made a 53 yarder, and missed twice from 47, not exactly chip shots. By comparison, the Redskin kicker at the time, Nick Novak, was 2 for 3. His miss was a 33-yard kick that was blocked and he hit from 40 and 39 yards.

When looking at the match-ups, Seattle has the better offense, while the Redskins are better on defense. Containing Seattle is the key for the Redskins. In the week 4 contest this was accomplished not by a good defensive showing, in fact the defense was fairly lackluster, but by the offense controlling the ball. Take a look at the Redskins drive chart for the 1st half of the game:
The Redskins had three time consuming drives. The Redskins controlled the ball for 22 minutes in the 1st half and dominated the half. The Redskins couldn’t cash in, and only lead 7-3 at the half. Part of this is due to Nick Novak, and his tendency to kick right into the defensive line and part of it is due to the Redskins not cashing in when in the red zone.

With John Hall back from injury, another field goal block by the Seahawks would be a surprise. Also the Redskins offense has matured to the point where they are now one of the best red zone offenses in the league. That said, with Portis banged up it will be tough to control the clock in this week’s encounter.

You can be sure Gibbs and company will be looking over the game tape and preparing an offensive game plan revolving around time of possession. Mark Brunell needs to turn get back to mid season form and convert those 3rd and shorts. If the Redskins dominate time of possession like they did in week 4, expect the season to continue for yet another week.

Today in the Post:
Wilbon on Taylor, Vick; Taylor fined; Focus on Offense; Media Crunch; Evans steps in; Alexander dominates; Seattle’s homefield advantage; Rhodes in Charge

The offense was horrible, but keep in mind Brunell only had 15 pass attempts and Portis was clearly hurting. Improvement is obviously needed but keep the disappointment in check. Special Teams were pretty good. I was ready to name Derrick Frost as the game MVP up until that horribly timed shank late in the 4th quarter. John Hall made his kick, and the coverage units did alright.

As for the defense, what can you say? They were tremendous all day. Yes, the Bucs missed a few shots late, but don’t forget the Redskins missed a few early shots (the Portis pass and the fake screen deep ball to Moss). Both touchdowns should be credited towards the defense even though they only scored the one. You can’t credit the offense for a five yard touchdown drive. Good on Arrington for getting that pick, and you can’t say enough about the defensive line. They shut down the run, and they batted back more than a few balls.

Yes, it was an ugly win. But think back to week 10 and that pretty loss to Tampa Bay. I’ll take this one any day. So enjoy this one for a few days, and come Monday we can prepare for the Seahawks.

Hail to the Redskins!

Whole lotta articles to read:
Washington Post
Front Page; Wilbon; Kornheiser; Soloman; Notebook; Taylor Tossed; TBays Missed Chance; Offense sucks; Skins get breaks; DC fans enjoy game; Seattle is next; Recap; Wise on Arrington

• The Bucs can’t stop runs to the right. The Redskins are at their best running to the right. Oh and they also lead the league in most run attempts to the right (21% of all run plays)
• The Redskins were negative two in turnovers in the last game and lost by one point. At that point in the season the Redskins were about -10 in turnovers, since that game they have moved all the way up to plus 1.
• Did you read Boswell in Friday’s Washington Post? Gibbs coached teams have improved by 17 points over teams they lost to previously. And don’t think this trend hasn’t continued in Gibbs’ second tenure:

• Do you really think Gregg Williams is going let a young quarterback like Chris Simms rip him twice?
• Portis has played against Tampa Bay twice since moving to Washington: 2004 – 148 yards; 2005 -144 yards.
• Any team that thinks having a pirate ship in one end zone is cool deserves to lose.
• Joe Gibbs has never lost in the wild card round.
• Despite all the media hype of this great rebuild by Jon Gruden, every top defensive player on the Buccaneers is getting old.
• Tampa Bay lost to San Francisco and the Jets for god sakes.

It’s the playoffs baby, enjoy the game today.

Saturday in the Washington Post:
Long Article on Cooley; Wilbon likes the Seahawks; The U comes through; Springs still questionable

When looking back at the Redskins season, perhaps the most important play came on special teams. With the Skins struggling in Arizona, Antonio Brown took a kickoff back for a touchdown. The touchdown gave the Redskins a lead, and helped propel the team into the playoffs. Even in the earlier Tampa Bay game, the Redskins special teams bailed them out of a big hole when Ladell Betts had kickoff return touchback.

Redskins Special Teams
K: John Hall 12-14 85.7%
P: Derrick Frost 40.4 Avg., 36.7 Net,
PR: Antonio Brown 13-63, 4.8 avg.
KR: Ladell Betts 24-621, 25.9 avg., 1 TD
Antonio Brown 19-439, 23.1 avg., 1 TD
Kickoff Coverage: 72-1503, 20.9 avg., 0 TD, 6th in league
Punt Coverage: 40-189, 4.7 avg., 0 TD, 2nd in league

Joe Gibbs has always put a focus on special teams. And the Redskins’ special teams, which not long ago were a terrible unit, are now a strong part of the club. They are led by the kickoff return team. Both Ladell Betts and Antonio Brown had return touchdowns. I’d expect Betts to get the call this week as he previously had success against Tampa Bay and is more consistent on his returns. Brown will handle the punt return duties. He has yet to break one since his return, but with his speed, it could happen at any time. Kicker John Hall hasn’t been needed much, but has done well when called upon. His kickoffs are a bit below average. Punter Derrick Frost has improved as the season has gone on, but he does have some shanks punts every now and again.

Tampa Bay Special Teams
K: Matt Bryant 21-25 84%
P: Josh Bidwell 45.6 Avg., 37.5 Net,
PR: Mark Jones 15-492, 9.6 avg.
KR: Torrie Cox 24-464, 19.3 avg., 0 TD
Edell Shepherd 20-414, 20.7 avg., 0 TD
Kickoff Coverage: 63-1368, 21.7 avg., 1 TD, 17th in league
Punt Coverage: 49-466, 9.5 avg., 0 TD, 25th in league

As you can see, the Tampa coverage units have struggled this season. Josh Bidwell has a big leg, but it leads to returns as he can out kick the coverage. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gibbs had Santana Moss try a return or two in this game. Matt Bryant had a good year, although oddly 2 of his missed came on 20-29 yard field goals. Mark Jones has good numbers returning punts, but the kick returners are below average. There is the opportunity for a big return or two in this game for the Redskins.

Game Pick:

When you boil down everything, the Redskins are the better team. They played a much tougher schedule, and are a stronger team. They have more big play threats in all aspects of the game. That said this isn’t a slam dunk victory. The Skins have been much better at home than when playing on the road. Simeon Rice has wreaked havoc on the Redskins in the past and if he dominates the battle with Chris Samuels, the Skins could be in trouble. They need a good game from Mark Brunell as well. The Brunell of last week against the Eagles won’t cut it. Interestingly, neither Joe Gibbs nor Jon Gruden has lost a wild card game as coaches. That said, Gibbs career is much longer and the Skins are rolling into the playoffs. It’ll be close, but I’m taking the Skins.

Washington 20 Tampa Bay 13 (Tampa is favored by 2.5)

Other Picks
New England 24 Jacksonville 20 (NE favored by 7.5) (Best Bet)
Carolina 20 NY Giants 17 (Giants favored by 2.5)
Pittsburgh 28 Cincinnati 24 (Steelers favored by 3)

In the Post on Friday:
Skins run is vintage Gibbs; Gibbs is at his best in the playoffs; Blache gets the line rolling; Bucs aim to stop Portis; Wilbon on Vince Young: Go the NFL